Agnieszka Radwanska covered the -5.5 handicap start to make it 9 winning bets from 12 when the NN ratings indicated a bet on the favourite giving up a start. That 75% strike rate has generated a profit of 4.64 points (38.67%)to level stakes over five days paper trading.
The outsiders receiving a start continued to fare below expections, just one of the four remaining bets coming good. The main purpose of testing ratings is not just to discover how accurate they are but also to find out if they can be used to generate a profit. The performance of favourites giving up less games on the handicap than the NN ratings indicate they should has thus far shown definite promise.
It would probably make sense to limit future paper trades to this particular angle for the duration of the tournament, as the slight ratings bias towards outsiders was again evident in Thursdays matches. However due to the small sample I am inclined to still include the underdogs receiving a start when the NN ratings indicate they represent value, at least until the end of week one.
Todays raw 'Match Supremacy' ratings
Vera Zvonareva +4
Serena Williams +6
Sabine Lisicki =0
Maria Sharapova +4
Sara Errani +1
Marion Bartoli +2
Ana Ivanovic +4
Petra Kvitova +6
Todays Paper Trades;
Ekaterina Makarova +4.5 @ 2.07 188Bet
Greta Arn +8 @ 1.91 B365
Svetlana Kuznetsova +2.5 @ 1.85 BWin
Angelique Kerber +5.5 @ 1.95 VC
Sorana Cirstea +2.5 @ 1.73 BS
Jie Zheng +3.5 @ 1.95 B365
Vania King +5.5 @ 2.02 188Bet
Petra Kvitova -5.5 @ 1.80 PP
Once again as a result of the assumed bias the NN ratings are favouring backing the outsider with a handicap start. The stand out bet of this evenings matches has to be the only favourite rated to cover the handicap start. That's Petra Kvitova, who is forecast to win by more than the 5.5 games she is spotting Maria Kirilenko. As with Radwanska yesterday, 1.8 looks on the skinny side but with this angle hitting 75% winners and earning 38.67% profit on level stakes so far this week, she has to be the main pick.
Results to date
All Bets: 80 Wins: 39 (48.75%) P&L: -4.89pts (-6.11%)
Fav giving start Bets: 12 Wins: 9 (75%) P&L: +4.64 (38.67%)
Loser rec. start Bets: 68 Wins: 30 (44.12%) P&L: -9.53 (-14.01%)
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